Finance Strategist. I share expert insights on financial modeling, finance, M&A, and strategy - and guides to help you confidently navigate deals and investment decisions.
Finance
What is the Kelly Formula? Developed by Bell Labs scientist John Kelly Jr. in 1956, the Kelly Criterion (also known as the Kelly Strategy or Kelly Bet) is a formula designed to determine the optimal fraction of your capital to wager on a favorable outcome. Its core purpose is to
Finance
We often make financial decisions that feel rational, but aren’t. The culprits are behavioral biases: predictable errors in thinking (cognitive) or feeling (emotional) that distort judgment about money, risk, and investments. These biases sit at the core of behavioral finance, a field that blends psychology and economics to explain
Finance
Think of macrofinance and microfinance as two ends of a telescope: one offering a panoramic view of the global financial system, the other zooming in on individual financial interactions. Both are essential to understanding how money shapes economies, businesses, and people’s lives. In this guide, we’ll explore the
Finance
Understanding what drives sustainable profitability remains one of the most fundamental challenges in business management. While revenue growth often captures attention, the real determinant of long-term success lies in the economics of individual business units - whether products, services, or customers. Unit economics analysis provides a rigorous framework for examining
Finance
Relying solely on aggregate financial metrics can sometimes obscure the granular drivers of value. This is where Activity-Based Valuation (ABV) emerges as a powerful approach that drills down into the operational core of a business to determine its intrinsic value. Traditional valuation methods often treat a company as a black
Strategy
The role of the Chief Financial Officer has evolved far beyond traditional number-crunching. Modern CFOs are strategic partners, crucial to navigating market shifts, identifying opportunities, and driving sustainable growth. To excel in this expanded role, a fresh approach to performance review is needed – and that's where the Upside-Down
Finance
Companies often go public to raise capital, gain visibility, and offer liquidity to early investors. However, there are times when the glare of the public spotlight can become a hindrance rather than a help. This is where the strategic decision to delist from public markets is considered - a move
Finance
While less common to full spin-offs, another powerful strategy frequently employed is the equity carve-out. A carve-out offers a nuanced approach to realizing the potential of a specific business unit without entirely relinquishing control. What is an Equity Carve-Out? An equity carve-out is a transaction where a parent company sells
Finance
We often talk about the power of synergy – how combining companies can create more value than the sum of their parts. But what about the opposite? Sometimes, a company's true potential is unlocked by breaking it apart. This strategy, often called a spinoff or demerger, can be a
Finance
What is Dividend Recapitalization? Imagine a private equity firm acquires a company, investing a significant amount of capital and taking on debt to do so. Their goal is to improve the company's operations, grow its profitability, and eventually sell it for a substantial return. A dividend recapitalization occurs
M&A
Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are complex beasts, and one of the most critical aspects to nail down in a share-based transaction is the exchange ratio. This determines how many shares of the acquirer's stock target shareholders will receive for each of their shares. Broadly, these ratios
Finance
The Chief Financial Officer (CFO) role has undergone a profound transformation. No longer just the keeper of the ledger, today's CFO is a strategic architect and a critical voice in the boardroom. This evolution is underpinned by three essential pillars that define success in the modern CFO landscape:
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