EQT x Coller Capital: A $3.7bn Bet on Secondaries and the Future of Private Markets

Executive Summary

In January 2026, EQT AB announced the acquisition of Coller Capital in a transaction valued at $3.2bn upfront, with a $500m performance-based earn-out, bringing total potential consideration to $3.7bn.

The deal marks EQT’s first major entry into the private equity secondaries market and establishes a new business segment, Coller EQT, dedicated exclusively to secondary strategies.

This is not a conventional AUM grab. It is a strategic platform acquisition designed to position EQT at the center of private markets liquidity, a function that has moved from peripheral to essential as private assets scale, holding periods lengthen, and exit markets remain episodic.

For Coller, the deal delivers liquidity, succession clarity, and access to global distribution at a moment when secondaries are consolidating around a small number of scaled, multi-channel managers.

This post provides a full investment analysis of the transaction.

Deal Overview, Financing, and Advisors

Transaction structure

• Buyer: EQT AB
• Target: Coller Capital
• Announcement date: 22 January 2026
• Base consideration: $3.2bn (cash-free, debt-free)
• Earn-out: Up to $500m in cash, contingent on performance through March 2029
• Expected close: Q3 2026, subject to regulatory approvals and LP consents

Financing mix

The acquisition is predominantly equity-funded. EQT will issue approximately 81 million new shares at a fixed price of SEK 355 per share, representing around 7% dilution to existing shareholders. A modest cash component (~$65m) is included, while the earn-out is payable in cash.

Importantly, approximately 64% of contingent proceeds allocated to key Coller professionals are contractually reinvested into EQT shares, subject to multi-year lock-ups.

The structure avoids acquisition debt and preserves EQT’s balance-sheet flexibility, while aligning Coller’s leadership with EQT’s long-term equity performance.

Advisors

• EQT financial advisor: UBS Group
• Coller financial advisor: Morgan Stanley
• Legal advisors: Ropes & Gray and Vinge (EQT); Kirkland & Ellis and Roschier (Coller)

Valuation and Economic Context

At $3.2bn base consideration, the transaction implies:

• ~8.5–9.1× 2026E fee-related revenue ($350–375m)
• ~16–18× 2026E fee-related EBITDA ($175–200m)
• ~6–7% of total AUM (~$50bn)
• ~10–11% of fee-generating AUM (~$33–40bn)

Relative to earlier secondaries acquisitions (e.g., Franklin Templeton/Lexington or Ares/Landmark in 2021), the headline multiple appears full. However, those transactions predated:

• the acceleration of GP-led secondaries,
• the rise of evergreen and wealth vehicles,
• and the current scale of private-markets liquidity demand.

Crucially, EQT is also acquiring carry participation—10% of carried interest in Coller’s latest flagship fund and 35% in future funds—giving it meaningful upside exposure beyond management fees.

Coller Capital: Business Model, Revenue Mix, and Strengths

Founded in 1990 by Jeremy Coller, Coller Capital is one of the original pioneers of the private equity secondaries market and among the last major independent specialists prior to this deal.

Scale and footprint

• Nearly $50bn total AUM
• ~$33bn fee-generating AUM at signing, trending toward ~$40bn by 2026
• 330 professionals, including ~77 investment professionals
• 11 offices globally, spanning Europe, North America, and Asia-Pacific

Revenue mix

Coller’s economics are heavily management-fee driven, with layered carry optionality:

1. Closed-end institutional funds
   • Flagship Coller International Partners (CIP) series
   • CIP IX closed in December 2025 with $10.2bn of fee-bearing commitments
   • Long-dated, stable fee streams with performance fee upside
2. Evergreen and private-wealth vehicles
   • Four evergreen funds with ~$4.1bn NAV
   • Designed for high-net-worth and semi-liquid channels
   • Typically higher fee rates to compensate for liquidity features
3. Credit and insurance-dedicated strategies
   • Secondary exposure to private credit portfolios
   • Bespoke structures for insurers requiring capital efficiency

Competitive strengths

• Consistent first-quartile historical performance
• Deep experience in GP-led transactions and continuation vehicles
• Long-standing LP relationships across 1,000+ institutions
• Strong structuring and underwriting capability across market cycles

The Secondaries Market: Past, Present, and Future

Past: niche, distressed, and opaque (1990s–early 2000s)

The secondaries market originated as a solution to a problem: early liquidity for LPs in illiquid private equity funds. Sellers were often banks, corporates, or insurers under balance-sheet or regulatory pressure, and pricing frequently cleared at 50–70% of NAV. Volumes were small, stigma was high, and transactions were bilateral and opaque.

Transition: institutionalisation (mid-2000s–2010s)

The global financial crisis catalyzed a shift. Regulatory changes and portfolio rationalisation created supply, while institutional buyers entered the market. Discounts narrowed, transparency improved, and secondaries became a portfolio management tool, not a distressed exit. Annual volumes rose steadily to $40–60bn by the late 2010s.

Present: core market infrastructure

Today, secondaries are embedded in the private markets ecosystem:

• $160–200bn+ annual transaction volumes
• Roughly 20% of total PE exit activity
• Balanced mix of LP-led and GP-led transactions

GP-led deals—continuation funds and restructurings—have become particularly important, allowing sponsors to extend ownership of high-conviction assets while providing liquidity to existing LPs. Pricing for high-quality assets now often clears at 85–95% of NAV, shifting alpha from discounts to selection, structure, and complexity.

Future: structural growth (2026+)

Looking ahead, secondaries are positioned for sustained expansion:

• Global private equity NAV exceeds $11tn
• Alternatives AUM projected toward $30tn by 2030
• Forecasts suggest $300–500bn annual secondary volumes by decade’s end

Growth drivers include longer holding periods, wealth and insurance capital, evergreen structures, and the normalization of liquidity planning in private markets. Secondaries are evolving into permanent infrastructure, not a cyclical trade.

Strategic Rationale: Why EQT Wanted Coller Capital

EQT’s acquisition of Coller Capital should be understood as a structural positioning move rather than a tactical entry into a hot sub-sector. The strategic logic rests on several interlocking drivers that reflect how private markets are evolving.

1. Completing the private-markets lifecycle

Before the transaction, EQT AB had built scale across private equity, infrastructure, real estate, and credit, but it lacked a dedicated liquidity capability. In today’s private markets, that omission is increasingly material.

Secondaries now sit at the intersection of:

• Portfolio construction (LP rebalancing, pacing, denominator management)
• Asset lifecycle management (GP-led continuation vehicles)
• Capital recycling (selling mature exposures to fund new commitments)

By acquiring Coller Capital, EQT moves from being a provider of primary exposure to a provider of end-to-end private-markets solutions — from initial commitment through liquidity and duration management.

This matters because the largest allocators increasingly want fewer managers with broader capabilities, rather than many specialists.

2. Structural growth of the secondaries market

EQT is buying exposure to one of the fastest-growing segments in private markets.

Key structural drivers:

• Exploding private-markets AUM (global PE NAV now >$11tn)
• Longer holding periods, especially for high-quality assets
• Slower and more episodic exit markets (IPOs, sponsor-to-sponsor M&A)
• Normalization of secondary sales as a portfolio tool, not a distressed exit

Industry consensus suggests annual secondary transaction volumes could double or more by 2030, with secondaries becoming a permanent liquidity layer rather than a cyclical release valve.

EQT’s move should therefore be viewed as a long-duration growth investment, not a near-term cycle call.

3. High-quality, counter-cyclical fee engine

From a listed-company perspective, secondaries offer particularly attractive economics:

• Management-fee heavy revenue mix
• Less reliance on volatile carry realizations
• Tendency to perform well when exits are constrained elsewhere

Periods of slow IPO/M&A activity—traditionally painful for private equity—often increase demand for secondaries, as LPs seek liquidity and GPs turn to continuation structures.

For EQT, Coller adds:

• Stability to fee-related earnings
• Better earnings visibility across cycles
• Reduced dependence on realizations timing

4. Growth optionality across channels and asset classes

Coller is not just a PE secondaries buyer; it is a platform for expansion.

Growth vectors EQT explicitly gains:

• Private wealth and evergreen vehicles, where secondaries are structurally well-suited
• Insurance-dedicated strategies, where liquidity, duration control, and capital efficiency matter
• Real asset secondaries (infrastructure, real estate), leveraging EQT’s existing domain expertise
• Asia-Pacific expansion, using EQT’s established regional footprint

EQT has publicly stated an ambition to double Coller’s business within four years — an aggressive target that assumes these growth levers are actively pulled.

5. Competitive positioning and platform defense

Nearly all major global alternatives managers now operate secondaries franchises. The direction of travel in the industry is clear:

• Broader product stacks
• Integrated liquidity solutions
• Platform-level competition rather than fund-by-fund competition

Without a secondaries capability, EQT risked being structurally disadvantaged in large allocator relationships. With Coller, EQT becomes a full-stack private-markets platform, better positioned to defend and grow share.

Why Coller Capital Said Yes

From Coller Capital’s perspective, the decision to sell is equally strategic and reflects how the secondaries industry itself is maturing.

1. Liquidity, valuation, and timing

After 35 years of building one of the most respected franchises in secondaries, the transaction provides:

• A high-quality liquidity event at a strong valuation
• Conversion of private partnership equity into liquid public shares
• Continued upside via earn-out and equity lock-ups

The timing is notable: Coller had just closed CIP IX, its largest flagship fund to date. Selling immediately after a successful raise reduces execution risk and maximizes strategic optionality.

2. Scale is becoming a competitive moat

The secondaries market has grown not only in volume but in complexity and ticket size:

• Multi-billion-dollar GP-led deals
• Cross-asset portfolios
• Bespoke liquidity structures

Winning these transactions increasingly requires:

• Global distribution
• Brand credibility
• Balance-sheet strength
• Deep operational infrastructure

EQT provides Coller with all of the above, accelerating growth that would be harder to achieve independently.

3. Distribution into wealth and insurance

Private wealth and insurance capital are among the fastest-growing sources of capital in alternatives — but they are distribution-intensive.

EQT brings:

• Established wealth channels
• Relationships with global banks and platforms
• Experience structuring semi-liquid vehicles

For Coller, this significantly expands addressable demand for evergreen and semi-liquid secondaries products.

4. Succession and franchise durability

Founder-led investment firms eventually face succession challenges. By integrating into a listed platform:

• Long-term ownership is institutionalized
• Equity becomes a scalable retention and incentive tool
• The franchise gains permanence beyond individual partners

This is particularly important in a people-driven business like secondaries.

5. Independence within a platform

Crucially, the transaction preserves what matters most to Coller:

• Independent origination and investment decision-making
• Brand continuity under Coller EQT
• Leadership continuity, with Jeremy Coller remaining in charge

This independence within scale model is increasingly standard in alternatives M&A, and essential for LP confidence.

Governance and Operating Plan Post-Close

• Creation of a dedicated Secondaries segment within EQT
• Brand: Coller EQT
• Jeremy Coller remains CEO/CIO of the business and joins EQT’s executive committee
• Independent origination and investment committees
• Shared infrastructure: distribution, technology, compliance, and reporting
• Robust conflict-management protocols between primary and secondary strategies

The operating philosophy is independence where alpha is created, integration where scale matters.

Risks and Key Watchpoints

Despite strong strategic logic, the transaction carries meaningful execution and market risks.

1. Key-person and talent risk

Secondaries are a relationship- and judgment-driven business. A small group of senior professionals drives origination, structuring, and underwriting quality.

Risk:

• Loss of senior dealmakers post-monetization
• Cultural friction within a larger organization

Mitigants:

• Multi-year lock-ups
• Earn-out tied to performance
• Continued leadership autonomy

Nevertheless, talent retention remains the single most critical risk.

2. LP perception and conflict management

LPs may scrutinize:

• Conflicts in GP-led transactions involving EQT-sponsored funds
• Information asymmetry between primary and secondary teams

Even perceived conflicts can damage trust.

Mitigants include:

• Strict separation of investment committees
• Independent valuation and fairness processes
• Transparent governance disclosures

This area will remain under constant LP and regulatory scrutiny.

3. Market and return compression risk

As secondaries scale:

• Pricing has moved closer to NAV
• Competition has intensified
• Forward returns may compress, particularly in commoditized LP portfolios

Alpha is shifting toward:

• Complex GP-led transactions
• Cross-asset underwriting
• Structuring expertise

Failure to adapt could erode performance and fundraising momentum.

4. Execution and integration risk

The strategic upside assumes:

• Effective cross-selling
• Successful expansion into new asset classes
• Scaling wealth distribution without cannibalization

Execution risk is non-trivial, particularly in aligning sales, messaging, and product development across a large platform.

Scenario Analysis and Forward Outlook

Bull Case: Structural winner in private-markets liquidity

Assumptions:

• Secondary volumes double by 2030
• Wealth and insurance capital scale rapidly
• Coller EQT successfully expands into real assets
• Talent retention is strong

Outcome:

• Coller EQT AUM approaches ~$100bn
• Fee-related earnings materially accretive
• EQT re-rates as a full-stack private-markets platform
• The deal becomes a defining strategic success

Base Case: Solid platform enhancement

Assumptions:

• Secondaries grow at high single- to low double-digit rates
• Partial realization of distribution and product synergies
• Some senior turnover, but core team retained

Outcome:

• Steady AUM and fee growth
• Earn-out partially paid
• Transaction proves strategically sound, though not transformative

Bear Case: Cycle turns and execution falters

Assumptions:

• Exit markets rebound sharply, reducing liquidity pressure
• Secondary pricing remains high, compressing returns
• Cultural or conflict issues impair fundraising

Outcome:

• Growth stalls
• Earn-out not achieved
• Acquisition appears expensive relative to realized value

Strategic takeaway

The EQT–Coller transaction is best viewed as a long-duration infrastructure investment in private-markets liquidity. As private assets continue to scale, liquidity, duration control, and portfolio flexibility are becoming core -not optional- features.

EQT is betting that secondaries will evolve from a specialist strategy into foundational market plumbing. If that thesis plays out, acquiring Coller at this stage may prove less about the multiple paid - and more about owning the right capabilities before they become indispensable.